I listed ten tech predictions for 2023 in a Forbes article I wrote in December 2022. And now here we are in December 2023. So how do these predictions – covering AI, space, hypersonics and quantum computing – have they proven themselves?
Let’s start by analyzing where we are with each of the projections.
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AI and LLMs 10 times larger than GPT-3 are becoming widespread.
Huawei’s PanGu-Σ is about 10 times larger than GPT-3. And oddly enough, it was trained on Huawei Ascend processors. The size of GPT-4 is unknown, but it is likely a mixed model of experts (MoE) composed of an unknown number of large models. So we definitely have a 10X model, and we also have a consumer model that using MoE could easily be 10 times larger, even though the individual models within the MoE set are GPT-3 in size. An interesting article describes Huawei’s work that you can consult here.
Launch of IBM’s Condor Quantum computer with 1000 qubits.
Although IBM has made significant progress in quantum computing in 2023, they have not released a 1,000-qubit computer. Instead, they released the IBM Quantum System Two with three IBM Heron processors, which are high-performance quantum processors with significantly improved error rates. Each Heron processor provides 133 qubits. IBM’s focus shifted to error correction rather than just raw size.
Growth of self-hosting and decentralized computing systems.
This has happened in spades with the #homelab trend gaining momentum and issues with mainstream social networks leading to massive user growth on decentralized social networks. Additionally, towards the end of 2023, the decentralized blockchain ecosystem has regained strength.
Rise of other electric vehicle manufacturers alongside Tesla.
Tesla has maintained its lead as the world’s largest electric vehicle maker, but Chinese manufacturer BYD is quickly catching up, now just a few percentage points behind. This has happened and it is a trend that will only increase in the months to come. Tesla has decided to counter the competition by engaging in a price war, but it remains to be seen who will ultimately win this war in a few years, with Chinese companies having a built-in advantage in low-cost manufacturing.
The first tourist trip around the Moon carried out by SpaceX.
SpaceX has made huge strides throughout this year, as has the rest of Space Industry 2.0. But the first tourist trip to the Moon has not yet taken off! Based on all the public domain information I have access to, it certainly seems close, but with no specific launch date announced, I’d say it’s a prediction that hasn’t proven accurate.
Launch of China’s first space telescope, the CSST.
The Chinese space agency announced that Xuntian, China’s first space telescope, will be launched in 2025 from China’s Wenchang Space Launch Center. We missed the timing on this one!
End of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The war is not over, but it has lost intensity and perhaps even ended in name only. After the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, we find ourselves in a clear impasse, a reduction in global interest and a move towards negotiations. Today, almost half of Ukrainians appear open to compromise with Russia to end the war, according to Ukrainian polling firm Rating. You can read more about this here.
Progress in the Metaverse vision.
Far from the spotlight of 2022, real progress has been made this year. Siemens invested €500 million in industrial metaverse efforts while major consumer companies like Adidas, Coach and D&G were present at Metaverse Fashion Week earlier this year. Digital twins are advancing at warp speed, and Apple’s launch of Vision Pro was an important first step in Apple’s commitment to making this vision a reality. The Metaverse hasn’t had the best press since Facebook’s failed launch, but it’s an inevitable technology that’s sure to materialize.
Tests of the first hypersonic aircraft.
US aerospace company Hermeus won a DIU contract earlier this year and has now begun testing the US-made Quarterhorse MK0 hypersonic aircraft. This is an exciting development that is coming close in other parts of the world, particularly China. You can learn more about the Hermeus Quarterhorse here.
A return to the office after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy seized on the trend directly when addressing workers who don’t want to return to the office: “It’s probably not going to work.” » According to Fortune Magazine, “work-from-home rates have fallen to 26%… as employers make returning to the office their North Star.” We are not in a future where most people work from home. And the results of our latest attempt in the COVID era have been distinctly mixed.
I will be posting my predictions for 2024 soon. I hope you will stick around to read and give your feedback.
Happy Holidays!