May 12, 2023, USA, Sunnyvale: An Apple test car converted into an autonomous vehicle can be seen in … [+]
Reports from Bloomberg suggest that Apple has decided to put an end to its secret advanced car project, which, although never officially recognized, was working on an electric and autonomous car. In an area that has seen recent upheaval, including the temporary shutdown of Cruise operations and the cancellation of Ford’s Argo project, Aptiv’s declining support for Motional (which still enjoys Hyundai’s backing), this n This is certainly not good news for the pace of deployment. autonomous driving. Apple, while not usually a pioneer, is one of the leading contenders for the title of the world’s leading technology company, and everyone was interested and scared of what it could do.
These recent setbacks have changed the tone of the industry. There is no longer any sense of “rush” and, whereas a few years ago companies jumped into space for fear of being one of the few left behind – at the risk of their possible loss – more and more companies are evaluating whether they should actively take action. work on space.
Automakers have never been particularly enthusiastic. While they don’t deny that change is going to happen in their industry, they don’t want it to be particularly rapid and prefer to manage it at their own pace, without disruption. High-tech companies and startups were much more eager to jump into a lucrative new industry and have the chance to take it over and do it their own way. In a few cases, like Cruise, Argo and Motional, traditional automakers have bought startups and let them operate as mostly independent companies in hopes of not falling into the traps of large traditional companies.
With Apple’s departure, the space is ceded primarily to Waymo, although Amazon/Zoox hopes to enter soon and Tesla remains far away. And of course Chinese companies, which offer services in several Chinese cities but will only be able to offer them in the United States through a partner. MobilEye hasn’t rolled out anything yet, but has a dominant role as a supplier to traditional automakers looking to enter the space on a vendor-neutral basis.
Even though no one knew what to make of Apple, because its plans have always been close to the vest, the continuing trend will make many companies feel like they now have more room to maneuver. They will not be the only ones to be excluded. Building a robo-taxi is extremely difficult and requires billions of dollars and a long time horizon, something many players weren’t really ready for, especially during economic ups and downs. The undesirable political climate in San Francisco, while always expected, also scared away players.
However, the desire to slow down is a boon for those who don’t. Even if they worry about wasting their money because it will take longer than expected, those who succeed will now have the land to themselves for a while. This is good news for them. This is even good news for Tesla, which has been betting for a long time on an alternative technological approach. Many people believe that while Tesla’s approach is risky and will likely take much longer to implement – and reports of Tesla’s latest rewrite “mostly neural networks” are not encouraging – it may well succeed at some undefined time in the future. If and when this happens, Tesla will be very well positioned and have fewer competitors in front of it.
It is also a victory for Chinese companies. For now, they are focusing on the Chinese market, but over time they will want to play in Western markets, although the political situation will probably prevent this for a while. This means they will want partners, and the more companies that don’t have their own plan, the more potential partners there will be. Apple could even be part of it, acquiring a software stack and contracting with a Chinese manufacturer to make the cars, as is the case with most of its products. Apple probably considered the path to its own project too long, but if there is a working stack of software and sensors that they can simply buy with money, that might be a different story.
In the widely acclaimed book The innovator’s dilemma, the story of industry disruption is told repeatedly. In these events, existing leaders rarely survive in the new industry. This happens not because they are incompetent and unable to see change, or even incapable of developing new technologies, but because they do not know or cannot steer the ship. They decide that the new technology isn’t really a threat and that they can always adapt to it later. And then they disappear, because it’s usually (but not always) a bad prediction. Adapting to autonomous driving cannot happen overnight, and those who consider doing so do so at their own risk.